Methodology guide

How Radar reads the game

This guide documents the methodology behind Radar Jogo a Jogo — how each metric is calculated, what it means and how to interpret the analysis. It is analytical reading material, not betting advice.

Editorial content · the decision is always the reader's

01The mathematics of value

ConceptExpected value (EV)

EV measures whether the price the market offers lines up with the estimated probability of an event. The analysis looks for situations where the calculated probability is higher than the one the market price implies.

+ Positive EV — market price above the estimated probability; the discrepancy favours the model's reading.

– Negative EV — market price below the estimated probability; no analytical margin.

MetricFair odds vs market odds

The statistical model estimates the true probability of an event (e.g. a 50% chance). The matching fair odds would be 2.00 (1 / 0.50).

If the market odds sit at 2.20, there is an asymmetry between the model's estimate and the price on offer. The analysis flags those discrepancies — the reading and the decision are yours.

02Sizing and context

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Kelly criterion

A mathematical model relating the size of a position to the estimated probability and the expected variability. It illustrates why disproportionate positions increase the variability of results over time.

High-variability signal: when the model points to a proportion above ~5%, the system flags high variability. Smaller fractions (1/4, 1/2) reduce the dispersion of results.

Dutching (covering multiple outcomes)

A concept where the return is equalised regardless of which of the covered outcomes occurs. It illustrates how spreading across prices affects exposure — presented as a statistical context tool.

Combining events

Combining multiple events multiplies uncertainty: each extra event lowers the joint probability and widens the variability. Presented for statistical context only.

03Market dynamics

Global consensus (Markov)

We track how lines behave across different markets (Asian and European) and cross-read them to measure divergence.

Solid: bookmakers converge with the estimated probabilities (low divergence).
Adjusting: market volume is moving the lines quickly.
Dispersed: high standard deviation; the global market diverges sharply on how it reads the match.

Technical opinion (Deep Analysis)

While the quantitative analysis reads numbers and historical probabilities, the technical opinion adds qualitative context drawn from public news:

Last-minute injuries and squad management
Probable line-ups reported by the press
How weather conditions affect the style of play
Competition context (e.g. a relegation fight)

The full reading crosses the qualitative context with the price discrepancies flagged by the quantitative analysis.